On Saturday 8 March, the Labor Party will have a good night in Perth. It will be in great contrast to the night exactly four weeks earlier on Saturday 8 February when, as I predicted in my last Switzer Daily article “Setback looming for Victorian Labor” https://switzer.com.au/the-experts/malcolm-mackerras/setback-looming-for-victorian-labor/ their night in Melbourne was characterised by weeping, wailing and the gnashing of teeth.
In Western Australia’s case, let me begin at the beginning. At the last general election, held on 13 March 2021, Labor secured 59.9% of the primary vote and 69.7% of the two-party preferred vote. In seats the result was 53 for Labor, four for the Nationals and two for the Liberal Party, Cottesloe in the metropolitan area and the rural seat of Vasse in the south-west. The Nationals won three wheatbelt seats (Central Wheatbelt, Moore and Roe) and the remote seat of North West Central. There are no Greens or independents, and the total Legislative Assembly number is 59 seats.
At the 2021 general election, both the leader and deputy leader of the Liberal Party lost their seats. So, with the Nationals becoming the bigger party in the Legislative Assembly the new Leader of the Opposition became Nationals leader Mia Davies. She has now “retired” by which I mean she will not re-contest her seat of Central Wheatbelt on 8 March. Instead, she will contest (unsuccessfully in my prediction) the new federal seat of Bullwinkel at the federal election I predict will be held on 12 April. So, the state Leader of the Opposition is now Shane Love, Nationals leader and member for Moore. On the other side of politics, Labor’s leader was Mark McGowan from 2012 to 2023. More importantly, he was the 30th Premier from March 2017 to June 2023, since which date Roger Cook has been the 31st Premier.
During the term of the 41st Parliament (2021-24), there were two by-elections, both caused by resignations. The first was in North West Central where the National Party’s Vince Catania had been the member. The by-election took place in September 2022 and was a contest between the National Party winner Ms Merome Beard, who finished with 3,071 votes, and the Liberal candidate Will Baston who finished with 2,008. The second was in McGowan’s seat of Rockingham where the contest was between the Labor winner, Magenta Marshall who finished with 13,412 votes and an independent Hayley Edwards who finished with 8,443 votes. There was a Liberal candidate who performed so poorly as to be eliminated - and his preferences distributed!
These two by-elections illustrate the nature of Western Australia’s bias in favour of rural and remote electoral districts. In North West Central the number of electors was 10,904 at the redistribution in November 2019 and 11,189 at the by-election. Its area was 820,591 square kilometres, the biggest in the state. In Rockingham the numbers were 27,975 electors at that redistribution and 30,213 at the by-election. Rockingham’s area then was 49 square kilometres. It is a typical urban seat in terms of its size and number of electors.
Another redistribution was completed in December 2023. To the surprise of no one, it saw the abolition of North West Central and a new seat created in Perth’s rapidly growing outer southern suburbs. That seat, to be known as Oakford, will be safe for Labor so the interesting question is what will happen to Merome Beard. The abolition of her seat was accompanied by the abolition of Moore, the seat held by Love. The upshot is that the two will contest the new seat of Mid-West, it being, in effect, an amalgamation of Moore and North West Central. Love will contest as the leader of the National Party, who is technically also Leader of the Opposition. Beard will be the Liberal candidate. In other words, Beard wanted to stay with the Nationals but, when thwarted of her wish to stay in Parliament in a safe Nationals seat, she defected to the Liberal Party. Mid-West is very rural, covering the area surrounding Geraldton. Its northern-most town is Carnarvon. Its southern-most town is Dalwallinu.
The media do not treat Love as though he is Leader of the Opposition. The alternative Premier, they say, is Libby Mettam, the member for Vasse and now Liberal leader. The latest Newspoll asked voters who should be Premier with 54 per cent nominating “Roger Cook”, 34% saying “Libby Mettam” and 12% saying “Other”.
I attach hereto my new pendulum based on the new boundaries. The number of notional Labor seats now is 54 (up one) and the number of notional seats for the National Party is three (down one). The Liberal Party stays at the two seats it won in March 2021. This pendulum is posted on my website. Any reader who wants a hard copy, just write to me asking for one. I have plenty of spare copies.
My Legislative Assembly prediction is for a biggish swing against Labor, reducing it from 69.7% of the two-party preferred vote to 57.7%, a swing of 12%. On a perfectly uniform swing that would leave Labor on 43 seats, increase the Liberals to 12 seats and give the Nationals four. While the swing against Labor will not be perfectly uniform, I know from experience that the deviations of swing on my pendulum cancel out – so that is my prediction, 43, 12 and 4. Will there be any Greens or independents? I don’t think so, but it would not entirely surprise me if teal independents took Fremantle from Labor and Cottesloe from the Liberal Party.
Although most attention will be given to the election of 59 members of the Legislative Assembly, there will also be an election for 37 members of the Legislative Council, with all 96 members in the 42nd Parliament serving for four-year terms. The Legislative Council result in March 2021 was that Labor won 22 seats while the combination of all the rest was 14 members, total 36. However, that was the result under the “bad old system”. There has since been a genuine democratic reform whereby all 37 members will be elected from the state voting as one electorate under a proportional representation system. My predictions are 15 Labor, 11 Liberals, three Nationals, three Greens, two Legalise Cannabis Party and one each for the Daylight Saving Party, the Animal Justice Party and Pauline Hanson’s One Nation Party.
What politicians call “democratic electoral reform” is often seen by outsiders as being a stitch up of one kind or another - and I often find myself in the company of such cynical outsiders who say that. For example, my recent Switzer Daily article on Victoria’s democracy was posted on 30 August last year and titled “A cynical stitch up is ready to be debated” https://switzer.com.au/the-experts/malcolm-mackerras/a-cynical-stitch-up-is-ready-to-be-debated/ This WA case, however, is exceptional. For those who want to read me further on this subject I refer you to my article “WA implements a genuine democratic reform” https://switzer.com.au/the-experts/malcolm-mackerras/wa-implements-a-genuine-democratic-reform/ It was published in Switzer Daily on the morning of 24 November 2021.