The Electoral Pendulum is the most effective visual means of explaining electoral results.
The Northern Territory chapter of my unpublished book It’s Not the Voting that’s Democracy has a section titled “The Northern Territory and the Commonwealth”. It runs through pages 24, 25, 26, 27 and part of 28. It demonstrates the extent to which the Northern Territory’s representation in the House of Representatives has for many years been advantaged compared to every other jurisdiction. Some of the information below comes from those pages. Then part of this essay gives the 2024 statistics covering the redistributions taking place in New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia and the Northern Territory. During the present 47th Parliament there will be no federal redistributions in Queensland, South Australia, Tasmania or the ACT. So, four of our eight lower jurisdictions are being redistributed while four are not.
Information is given below on the four jurisdictions that are now being redistributed. However, to fill in the full picture let it be noted now that, at as 29 February 2024 the number of electors in Queensland was 3,657,718, in South Australia 1,287,793, in Tasmania 408,692 and in the ACT 317,348. Therefore, were there to have been redistributions during the current 47th Parliament the quotas would have been 121,923 for Queensland, 128,779 for South Australia, 81,738 for Tasmania and 105,782 in the ACT. Looking at the enrolments for each division in these jurisdictions, as of 29 February 2024 the highest was in Spence (SA) while the lowest was in Clark (Tasmania). The enrolment in Spence was 134,503 and in Clark 74,322.
Now let me deal with the most historically privileged jurisdiction, the Northern Territory. In February 2017 there was published under the auspices of the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 the Report of the Augmented Electoral Commission for the Northern Territory. The report took the format of a booklet titled “Redistribution of the Northern Territory into Electoral Divisions”. To equalise the enrolments of the federal divisions of Lingiari and Solomon 2,680 electors were transferred from Solomon to Lingiari. Consequently, as of 15 October 2015 the “new” Lingiari had 64,552 electors and the “new” Solomon had 65,019. The electors transferred were a mere 2.1 per cent of the then total Territory enrolment of 129,571. I use the word “new” because the “old” boundaries had dated from the November 2001 federal election. Under the new boundaries the area of Lingiari became 1,348,158 square kilometres while that of Solomon became 191 square kilometres. The quota was 64,786. The “new” boundaries applied at the federal general elections held on 18 May 2019 and 21 May 2022. At those two elections both seats were retained by Labor. In May 2022 the enrolments were 74,008 for Lingiari and 71,843 for Solomon, a total of 145,851.
Beginning late in February 2024 there is now taking place a Northern Territory federal redistribution under the so-called “seven-year rule” whereby a map must be reviewed after seven years. The present enrolments are 81,288 for Lingiari and 72,109 for Solomon, a total of 153,397. The new quota, therefore, is 76,699 electors. My estimate is that some five thousand electors will be transferred from Lingiari to Solomon.
The generosity to the Northern Territory of the population formula is best illustrated by the fact that in January 2016 there had been a redistribution to divide Western Australia into 16 divisions. The quota was 94,026. Then there was a redistribution in February 2016 to divide New South Wales into 47 divisions. The quota was 103,481. Then there was a redistribution to divide Queensland into 30 divisions. The quota was 103,203. Only Tasmania was comparable to the Northern Territory. Its five divisions are guaranteed by the Constitution. Yet its quota in 2017 was 75,014. As noted above were there to be a redistribution in Tasmania in 2024 the quota would be 81,738 electors.
In 2018 there were federal redistributions in Victoria and South Australia. The purpose of the former was to increase the number of seats from 37 to 38, in the latter to reduce the number from 11 to 10. For Victoria the quota was 106,954, about the same as in New South Wales and Queensland. South Australia was last to report – in July 2018. Its quota was the highest of them all at 119,503. As noted above were there to be a redistribution in South Australia in 2024 the quota would be 128,779 electors.
I noted above that in February 2017 the NT enrolment quota had been 64,786 electors. It just so happened that the Northern Territory was the first of six jurisdictions to have federal redistributions during the life of the 45th Commonwealth Parliament. Its final report was published in February 2017. In November 2017 Tasmania had its report published. Queensland’s report was published in March 2018. For Tasmania’s five divisions the quota was 75,014 and for Queensland’s 30 divisions it was 103,203. Then there was a redistribution for the ACT completed in May 2018 and its quota was 96,115 for its three divisions. That was followed by a redistribution for Victoria published in June 2018 and its quota was 106,954 for its 38 divisions. These statistics underline the extent to which the Northern Territory and Tasmania are favoured compared with every other jurisdiction.
Whereas the Northern Territory was the first of several jurisdictions to report during the 45th Parliament it will probably be the last to report during the current 47th Parliament. In September 2023 the process began in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia for which the quotas were 121,011 for NSW, 116,894 for Victoria and 113,508 for Western Australia, the number of divisions being 46 (down one), 38 (down one) and 16 (up one) respectively.
Under the “seven-year rule” in section 59 of the Commonwealth Electoral Act the Northern Territory redistribution process was begun late in February 2024. As noted above the quota for its two divisions is 76,699 electors. It is very unlikely that the swing required to lose statistics of either NT federal seat on my pendulum will be significantly changed. On the May 2022 statistics the Country Liberal Party needs swings of one per cent in Lingiari and nine per cent in Solomon.
In January 2024 Dr Scott Prasser sent me an article about the United Kingdom general election likely to be held in October 2024. It noted the fact of new constituency boundaries and contained this statement: “With a few exceptions the new boundaries follow a simple rule, laid down in 2020: to keep the number of electors in each constituency within five per cent of 73,393, while staying faithful to geography.”
So, there we have a good comparison between the UK and Australia, the averages being 73,393 in the UK, 76,699 in Australia’s Northern Territory, 81,738 in Tasmania, 105,782 in the ACT, 113,508 in Western Australia, 116,894 in Victoria, 121,011 in New South Wales, 121,923 in Queensland and 128,779 in South Australia. Clearly, we need more members in the House of Representatives to make our situation at all comparable to that of the UK House of Commons. Of our 151 members (soon to be 150) only seven represent electorate numbers roughly comparable with the UK. The other 144 represent substantially more electors than does the average member of the British House of Commons.
I suppose, however, that none of the above is surprising. Australia’s population is 27 million while that of the UK is 70 million, a ratio of 2.6 Britishers to every Australian. Multiply Australia’s 151 federal lower house members by 2.6 and the result would be 393 members of the House of Commons. But the number of members of the UK House of Commons is 650. It will stay at 650 for the October 2024 general election.