The People’s Republic of Kurrajong
Having lived in Canberra for many years I have been entitled to vote under the Hare-Clark system that applies to the election of five members for each Electorate. There are 25 members of the Legislative Assembly, being composed of five elected for each of Brindabella, Ginninderra, Kurrajong, Murrumbidgee and Yerrabi. Each name is of Aboriginal origin representing a feature of the ACT, a mountain range (Brindabella), a waterfall (Ginninderra), a river (Murrumbidgee) and an artificial lake (Yerrabi).
Kurrajong, however, is not an especial ACT name but is called after the kurrajong tree of which there is a forest near my house. Its significance is that the most recent election (on Saturday 17 October 2020) produced a result which led media wags to call it “the People’s Republic of Kurrajong”. Going into the election there were two Labor members, Chief Minister Andrew Barr and Social Inclusion Minister Rachel Stephen-Smith, two Liberals, Elizabeth Lee and Candice Burch, and one for the Greens, Corrections Minister Shane Rattenbury. The election result was a shock in Kurrajong. Burch lost her seat to Greens candidate Rebecca Vassarotti.
It is not the purpose of this section of my blog to write of the politics of Kurrajong. My purpose here is to Illustrate Robson Rotation. There were 50 rotations in Kurrajong and here I show the 31st, 32nd and 33rd rotations. Robson Rotation is called after the late Neil Robson, a Liberal member for Bass (Tasmania) in the late part of the 20th Century.
Tasmania being the place where the Hare-Clark system began it is appropriate that I show the Tasmanian version of Robson Rotation. And what better a place to start than the House of Assembly Division of Bass where Robson was once a Liberal member. It has one thing in common with Kurrajong. Whereas Kurrajong is the area from which the ACT Labor Chief Minister hails, Bass is the area from which Tasmania’s Liberal Premier hails. Peter Gutwein became Tasmania’s Premier in January 2020 consequent upon the resignation of Will Hodgman. There were 40 rotations at the election on Saturday 3 March 2018 and here I show the second and sixteenth.
Members elected for Bass in March 2018 were Gutwein and two other Liberals, Sarah Courtney and Michael Ferguson. Labor secured the election of Jennifer Houston and Michelle O’Byrne. There was a Greens member for Bass during the 2014 to 2018 term, Andrea Dawkins, but she was defeated in March 2018. Whereas Kurrajong was the Electorate yielding the worst result for the Canberra Liberals Bass was the Division where the Tasmanian Liberals performed best. The Liberal Party has 13 of the 25 seats in Tasmania’s House of Assembly but only nine of the 25 seats in the ACT Legislative Assembly.
In 2018 Gutwein was not the Premier and he polled 15,213 primary votes out of a Liberal Party total of 38,215. In 2021 he was the Premier and polled 32,482 primary votes out of a Liberal Party total of 40,379.
At the election on Saturday 1 May 2021 there were 70 rotations and here I show the 10th and 59th. The reason for the increase in the number of rotations was that the Liberal Party thought it could win four of the five seats. To guard against possible casual vacancies, it reasoned that there must be at least two “reserve” candidates – so it stood six candidates.
In the end the party distribution in Bass was the same in 2021 as it had been in 2018. In order of election, the successful candidates were Gutwein (Liberal), Courtney (Liberal), Ferguson (Liberal), O’Byrne (Labor) and Finlay (Labor). It is worth noting that the same Liberals were elected both times. Not so for Labor. Houston stood as a sitting member but polled only 1,512 primary votes compared with 7,813 for O’Byrne and 5,830 for the non-incumbent Finlay.
Readers are invited also to notice another small change. In 2018 the words “Your vote will not count unless you number at least 5 boxes” appeared at the bottom. In 2021 they were moved to the top. That was, in my opinion, a small improvement in layout to an already very voter-friendly ballot paper.
Malcolm Mackerras
15 March 2022
The next ACT election will be held on the fixed day, Saturday 19th October 2024. There will be no change in ballot paper format.
The next Tasmanian election can be held at anytime - but not later than 28 June 2025. The number of members per division will increase from five to seven. Therefore, the total for the House of Assembly will rise from 25 to 35. The words ‘Your vote will not count unless you number at least 5 boxes’ will become ‘Your vote will not count unless you number at least 7 boxes’.
Malcolm Mackerras
10 October 2023